None of These

BFCM is a Nash equilibrium. It's stable. It's collectively irrational. And we're all trapped in it. The mathematics are clear. The incentives are clear. The outcome is predictable. And yet every November, we wake up, look at our margins, and do it again.* *Written by someone who reads too much game theory and has to explain to the C-Suite every year why BFCM margins are terrible despite everyone knowing in advance that BFCM margins will be terrible.

I've been thinking about Adam Smith lately, which is either a sign of encroaching middle age or evidence that ecommerce has finally broken my brain. Probably both.

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% this week. The federal funds rate is now 3.75-4%, down from 4-4.25%. Markets wobbled. Financial media went into overdrive. Jerome Powell gave a characteristically vague press conference about "driving in the fog." And somewhere, right now, someone is panicking about what this means for their finances while simultaneously financing a $1,400 espresso machine at 29.99% APR. Let me show you the math on what yesterday's rate cut actually mean

Pattern recognition isn't the same as statistical proof, and your conversion data knows it

We're watching the AI infrastructure landscape evolve from a battlefield of exclusive alliances into something more complex: a web of overlapping partnerships, temporary arrangements, and strategic flexibility.

I write everything with fountain pens. Yes, everything. Notes, drafts, shopping lists, the occasional great idea for a play that might become a poem. People think this is charming or eccentric or deeply impractical. It’s none of these things. It’s economic.

Could something as simple as a viral catchphrase be the economic 'canary in the coal mine'?